The gap widens
Every time I go to the Real Clear Politics composite poll average, the gap widens. It's now Obama 51.2 percent, McCain 44.2 percent.
Labels: Barack Obama, John McCain, politics
posted by Dan Kennedy @ 12:55 PM
12 comments
12 Comments:
Boston City Councilor Stephen Murphy just called to tell me to vote No on Prop 3. What a guy.
44.7 and climbing.
Is Prop 3 the dogs? I'm confused here; not informed enough I hate to say.
Should have been 51.7 and climbing.
But....but....but...Obama should be leading by twenty points thanks to the media that's in the tank for him!
Go to this page on the RCP site and you can see the day-to-day polling, as well as the state-to-state shifts.
In the past week, Obama's lead started at 7, went down to 5.9 four days ago, and then back up to 6.9. In that time, the state shifts have been:
AZ: solid McCain to Toss Up(!)
NH: solid Obama to lean Obama back to solid Obama
NV: Toss up to lean Obama
GA: lean McCain to Toss Up
PA: solid Obama to lean Obama
AR: solid McCain to lean McCain
SD: solid McCain to lean McCain
OH: lean Obama to Toss Up
VA: lean Obama to Toss Up
MN: solid Obama to lean Obama
So Obama has gained one state (NV) and lost two (OH and VA). McCain has lost two (AZ and GA).
But tomorrow is the only poll that counts. I'm watching PA and VA. If VA goes blue, then it's probably a landslide for Obama. If McCain wins PA he has a chance. If McCain holds VA and Obama holds PA, then it'll probably be a close Obama win, but I'll be watching OH.
If AZ is really a toss-up, I'll eat my hat (after first making a hat from a corned beef sandwich).
And then there's Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.
Hey Don, does Sarah Palin know who "runs" the Senate yet?
Just asking.
Nate Silver weighs in with an interesting comment:
"I continue to find a hair's worth of tightening on balance in the state-by-state polls -- even as Obama's position in the national trackers seems to be roughly as strong as it has ever been. This, ironically, is the exact reverse of the position we saw earlier in the week, when the national polls seemed to be tightening even as the state polls weren't."
The state-by-state is the important thing, not the overall number.
I find the final Gallup number to be wild: 55-44!? I might believe a 6-point gap, but 11? I think Gallup is going to have some crow to eat.
Well, Nate addresses that later in the day, saying he thinks pollsters "peek at each other's results" and the temptation is to put their finger on the scale so as not to be outside the herd (I know that's mixing metaphors, but ...).
Last time I voted, the felt-tipped pens were all dried out and when I asked for one that would make a dark enough mark so that the scanner would pick up my vote, I was given a fresh pen and told, in all seriousness, that the poll workers remove the caps on the pens so that they don't get carried off by the voters. Made me wonder how many votes didn't get picked up by the scanner. Maybe tomorrow I'll bring my own pen just in case ...
Palin just released her health records: she's healthy!
I take that as a good omen.
My prediction - Obama 338 (52.1), McCain 200 (46.8)
And I wish Governor Palin a long and healthy life in Alaska.
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