A huge step forward for McCain

Democratic leaders must be unhappy tonight. By designating John McCain, finally, as the frontrunner, Florida Republicans have given a huge boost to the strongest candidate who could be nominated in terms of appealing to independents and conservative Democrats. McCain's hardcore support for the war in Iraq may be poison in November. But he's far more likely to expand his vote beyond the Republican base than Mitt Romney.

At 71, McCain is an old-fashioned guy. He's wearing a hideous tie (no, not the one in the photo), and he began his speech by talking to the folks in the room, not the television cameras — reminiscing about his naval training in Pensacola, introducing Gov. Charlie Crist, Sen. Mel Martinez and several members of Congress. He also hailed Rudy Giuliani, who's likely to endorse him this week. That will be huge, as it will unite moderate Republicans around one candidate.

Now he's giving his stump speech, aimed at solidifying his shaky support among conservatives. "I am as proud today to be a Republican conservative as I was then," he said, repeating his frequent line of being a "foot soldier in the Reagan revolution." Essentially it's a list of conservative nostrums aimed at trying to unite his party, complete with a whack at judges, always popular with the red-meat crowd.

"We have a ways to go, but we're getting close," he said in closing. "And for that you have my profound thanks."

Live-blogging note: When I don't edit myself, I tend to write "huge" a lot, don't I?

Photo (cc) by marcn. Some rights reserved.

Romney speaks

Romney's speaking now. By all rights, he should be just about out of it now. But it's a strange year, so who knows? He seems nervous and upset, but that doesn't necessary presage a pullout.

One of the more unusual findings I saw on CNN tonight was that McCain beat Romney solidly among voters for whom the economy is their most important concern. The economy has been Romney's mantra since Michigan, but it didn't work in Florida.

Romney: "I think it's time for the politicians to leave Washington and the citizens to take over." He's running through his usual talking points, bashing "Hillarycare" and teachers unions. He's for families and the military. And George W. Bush. But he really sounds like he's straining — very different from Giuliani a few moments ago. Then, Giuliani had known for weeks that he was going to lose.

I can't imagine he's going to quit quite yet. He's got money, and, as Huckabee continues to fade, he might pick up the evangelicals.

But it looks like the Republicans finally have a frontrunner, and it's not Mitt Romney.

Closer than it looks

It's now McCain, 35 percent, and Romney, 31 percent, but they still won't call it. What's going on? Take a look at this map from WashingtonPost.com. Most All (that's a lake!) of the untallied counties are from the Panhandle. This is going to get tighter.

Oh, and now the word is that Giuliani is going to pull out and endorse McCain. And here we go — the AP and Fox just called it for McCain.

Does Florida look like America?

This is pretty amazing. Forty percent of Democrats who voted in the Florida primary were 60 and older. Among Republicans: 44 percent. Only 9 percent of Democrats are under 30, and only 7 percent of Republicans. Not sure how that plays out in the Republican primary, but it certainly hurts Obama, who got pasted tonight in the no-delegate beauty contest.

McCain, 34; Romney, 31

But no indication of where the votes are coming from. Presumably, Romney's going to do better in the conservative Florida Panhandle, where the polls closed an hour later. So, uh, maybe I'll just watch for a while.